Oscars 2023: Who will win? And who do we think should win? (2023)


chickenAs Banshees Inisheringpublished, I said it would inspire awe for centuries to come. I called the London-Irish conductor Martin McDonagh a modern Mozart. Hell, I really couldn't contain my excitement.

So of course I'm delighted that McDonagh's story of a friendship gone horribly wrong is up for all the grand prizes at this year's awards.Academy Awards(Best Picture, Best Director, Original Screenplay) and that its four stars are rivals in the acting categories. I'm equally impressed with the gritty Metaverse game Everything Everywhere All At Once, which accomplished the same feat. the wink todeposit, The Fabelmans,elvis, women talk andtriangle of sadness? Yep, all fantastically smart options.

However, my greatest joy came yesterday afternoon when Riz Ahmed and Allison Williams announced the nominations for Paul Mescal, who was nominated for Best Actor for his lead role in the happy and sad independent drama Aftersun. It's great to see Avatar: The Way of Water and Top Gun: Maverick recognized (both films made me emotional), but Aftersun, Charlotte Wells' debut film, which was produced for a tiny fraction of the money, is just as exciting. epics . .

Suffice it to say, if Danielle Deadwyler's work on Till had been recognized, it would basically be the best nominee list ever.

Here are my predictions and my preferences.

Best photo

Featured: All Quiet on the Western Front; Avatar: The Way of Water; Inisherin's Banshees; Elvis; Everything everywhere, everything at the same time; the Fabelmans; Tar; Top Gun: Maverick; triangle of sadness; women talk

Who will win?


I think Academy voters (split between blockbuster sequels and low-budget indie films) will compromise by giving first prize to the Baz Luhrmann biopic. Full of mold, Elvis contains one of the most beautiful and sensual performances of the year thanks to Austin Butler. Of course, the recent death of Elvis' daughter Lisa Marie will make any celebration more poignant.

Who should win?

As Banshees Inishering

Because it's the movie that made me think and cry the most. Colin Farrell plays Padraic, a gooey, humble, donkey-loving Irish farmer who is funny until he's not. The other characters in the film (played by Brendan Gleeson, Barry Keoghan and Kerry Condon) possess the same stun ability.

best director

Nominated: Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin; Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert, Everything and Everywhere at Once; Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans; Todd Field, Tar; Ruben Ostlund, Triangle of Sadness

Who will win?

Steven Spielberg

Last year, her wonderful West Side Story earned just one big win, for Best Supporting Actress. Academy voters will want to reward this beloved director, and he made it easy for them: The Fabelmans, his semi-autobiographical drama about a cinematic boy who watches on many levels as his parents' marriage falls apart, is hilarious. , intelligent and extremely moving. Spielberg dedicated his win on Schindler's List to his mother, Leah Adler. If you win in March, expect an emotional speech.

Who should win?

Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert

Not everyone loves this bizarre version of a troubled mother-son relationship (I was thrilled to see my own daughter calling her "messy and empty"). But it's unlike anything you've seen before, and its directors, the Daniels (Kwan and Scheinert), are absolute losers, telling a story that absolutely no one in their right mind could call Oscar bait. It's good that they are in this race.

best actor

Nominated: Austin Butler, Elvis; Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin; Brendan Fraser, The Whale; Paul Mescal, After the Sun; Bill Nighty, Vivo

Who will win?

Brendan Fraser

Because he's a wonderful actor with a delicious giggle who's been through hell. And all of this has left sane people desperate to celebrate what he's doing in the terrible melodrama The Whale. Director Darren Aronofsky doesn't allow his star to be subtle. nowa, unlike the film itself, is tragic.

Who should win?

Colin farrell

He was never nominated, although he produced exceptional work (The Lobster, The Killing of a Sacred Deer, After Yang) for years. He gives a perfect performance in The Banshees of Inisherin. That said, if Paul Mescal wins (for his equally good comeback in Aftersun), I'll freak out.

Best actress

Nominees: Cate Blanchett, Tar; Ana de Armas, Blonde; Andrea Riseborough, Leslie; Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans; Michelle Yeoh, at once, everywhere

Who will win?

Michelle Yeoh

It's obvious that Academy voters love Everything Everywhere All at Once (it received 11 nominations, more than any other film).

Who should win?

Michelle Yeoh

She's fabulous as Evelyn, a feisty Chinese-American laundry owner. Plus, she hasn't even been nominated yet and that would make history (she's the first Best Actress nominee to identify as Asian). Cate Blanchett's performance in Tar is superlative, but she has two Oscars. That's enough. Michelle's turn!

Best Supporting Actor

Nominees: Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin; Brian Tyree Henry, Calzada; Judd Hirsch, The Fabelmans; Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin; Ke Huy Quan, at once everywhere

Who will win?

Ke Huy Quan

It's not just that he's heartbreaking and feisty as the seemingly kind and mellow husband in Everything Everywhere All at Once. It's just that Quan's backstory is so rich. As a child, he appeared in Indiana Jones and the Temple of Doom. After that, work pretty much dried up until the Daniels got in touch. Never give up on your dreams... Quan is a fairy tale with legs.

Who should win?

barry keoghan

Your character is an idiot on the surface. But you'd have to be an idiot to fire Irish spendthrift Dominic, whose wit and pain make Inisherin's Banshees shine. Keoghan is always great, but he takes things to a new level here.

The best supporting actress

Nominated: Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever; Hong Chau, The Whale; Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin; Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything and Everywhere at Once; Stephanie Hsu, at once, everywhere

Who will win?

Jamie Lee Curtis

She's a Hollywood queen waiting for recognition (she's never been nominated for an Oscar), and when she triumphs for All At Once, she's sure to deliver a touching/mischievous speech. Furthermore, her performance as IRS agent Deirdre Beaubeirdre is genuinely delightful, an ode to the kind of deeply sensual woman whose irrepressible face she usually dismisses as axe.

Who should win?

Angela Bassett

She's such a crucial ingredient in Ryan Coogler's bold and emotionally impactful epic that she didn't get the love she deserved in the other categories. Coogler and the entire cast of Black Panther: Wakanda Forever found a way to honor the talent of Chadwick Boseman. His talent must also be recognized.

original screenplay

Featured: The Banshees of Inisherin; Everything everywhere, everything at the same time; the Fabelmans; Tar; triangle of sadness

Who will win?

Todd Field, for tar

I suspect his impressive portrayal of a cocky maestro will miss out on the Best Picture and Best Director awards for being too "challenging". Field's view is not overly esoteric, but it may seem that way to the casual observer. Giving Field this award makes Academy voters look classy, ​​which will make everyone happy.

Who should win?

Todd Camp

In terms of ingenuity and dark intelligence, there is no choice between him, Martin McDonagh and the Daniels. It's an incredibly good year for agile scripting. Seriously, there isn't a single weak link on this list (Tony Kushner and Spielberg for The Fabelmans, Swede Ruben Ostlund for Triangle of Sadness? Whoever wins the prize, it's all good).

custom script

Featured: All Quiet on the Western Front; Crystal Onion: A Knives Out Mystery; Life; Top Gun: Maverick; women talk

Who will win?

Sarah Polley, for women who speak

While you might not notice it by looking at the Best Director category, in 2023 female filmmakers did a great job. And Talking Women is the only film directed by a woman to appear in the Best Picture category (PS, it has no chance of winning). Giving the award to writer-director Polley for her 2018 adaptation of the Miriam Toews novel will silence critics who say women have been marginalized.

Who should win?

Sarah Polley

In her thriller, a group of women from a Mennonite sect in the United States react to evidence that they have been sexually abused by members of their own community. Polley kept the darkness and subtle urgency of Toews' nemesis in the plot, but added plenty of humor. It's an incredible achievement.

documentary function

Indicated: Anything that breathes; all beauty and bloodshed; fire of love; a house made of chips; navalni

Who will win?

All the beauty and the bloodshed

Laura Poitras' portrayal of artist and activist Nan Goldin is incredibly interesting. The film chronicles Goldin's quest to hold the "philanthropic" billionaire clan, the Sacklers, accountable for America's opioid crisis. A win for the movie is the perfect way to increase the pressure on the Sackler family and show where Hollywood's loyalties lie.

Who should win?

All the beauty and the bloodshed

Visually spectacular, intellectually complex and radiantly delicate, this film is even better than Poitras' Citizen Four about Edward Snowden. And Goldin is a natural in front of the camera.

international feature

Featured: All Quiet on the Western Front, Germany; Argentina, 1985, Argentina; Close, Belgium; EO, Poland; The Quiet Girl, Ireland

Who will win?

All quiet on the western front

This Netflix drama is getting a lot of attention. I am in awe (the first twenty minutes of Edward Berger's World War II drama are shocking and inspiring; what follows seems routine to me). But the streaming giants really know how to stand by their products. Do you remember Apple TV+ and Coda?

Who should win?

the silent girl

Colm Bairead's Irish-language adaptation of Claire Keegan's novel is a sublime coming-of-age tale set in the 1980s. The chronically shy Cait (newcomer Catherine Clinch; extraordinaire) seems to live at ease with her in Waterford, and their eyes are wide open to pain and pleasure. Thanks to this quietly subversive story, I'll never hear the word "dad" quite like that again.

The 95th Academy Awards will be held at the Samuel Goldwyn Theater on Sunday, March 12; and broadcast liveoscar.comjoscar.orgjust like the academyblood,FacebookjYouTube

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