An earthquake of unimaginable proportions is imminent in Istanbul. Neighbors ask if the city is ready | CNN (2023)

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Istanbul CNN—

For more than five weeks, Turkey has been battling the aftermath of a devastating 7.8 magnitude earthquake in the south-east of the country. But further, in its greater and morethe most populous city, pressure is mounting on authorities to prepare for the possibility of another natural disaster of unimaginable proportions.

“The prospects for Istanbul are not good. It's not light at all,” says Professor Celal Sengor, one of Turkey's leading geoscientists.

"If there isn't a big earthquake in the next twenty years,In Istanbul, so we would all be very surprised," the Istanbul Technical University professor told CNN. "It's so close. It's just a probability, but the probability is high."

With two major flawsin its vicinity -Northern Anatolia and East Anatolia-Turkey is one of the countries with the highest seismic activityregions of the world. It is a geological reality that raises concerns about earthquake preparedness in Istanbul.

As the capital of bothByzantine EmpireIt is inOttoman Empire, the densely populated city is home to about 16 million people. It is perilously close to the North Anatolian Fault, which stretches 20 kilometers from Istanbul and crosses the Sea of ​​Marmara, according to the Geological Society of London.

In the past, the fault has triggered several devastating earthquakes, including a 7.6 magnitude earthquake that shook the neighboring townCity of Izmit in 1999,More than 17,000 people were killed and an estimated 500,000 others were displaced.

Today, experts estimate that another earthquake on the North Anatolian Fault Line could be of any magnitude.between 7.2 and 7.8, with devastating consequences for the commercial and industrial center of Turkey. However, the timing of such an earthquake is impossible to predict.

“We can predict that aearthquakes of the same magnitudeit will happen soon, but that's the best we can do. You can't predict that," says Sengor.

A study by the Kandilli Observatory and the Earthquake Research Institute estimates the death toll at more than 14,000 when a 7.5 magnitude earthquake struck Istanbul overnight. However, some experts believe the number will be much higher.

“My guess is around 100,000. There will be chaos,” says Sengor. “One must not only think about the direct effects of the earthquake, one must also think about what comes after the earthquake. There will be looting, fires, epidemics. It's going to be awful.

Current forecasts by Istanbul Municipality suggest that a magnitude 7.5 earthquake along the North Anatolian Fault could destroy around 90,000 buildings in the city, with another 260,000 buildings expected to suffer significant damage. It's a sobering forecast that city officials say 4.5 million people could become homeless, more than a quarter of Istanbul's population.

Now, after more than 48,000 people died in Turkey's earthquake last month, Istanbul is trying to strengthen its defenses against a natural disaster experts say could strike at any time.

As part of efforts to prepare for a major earthquake, Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu has released what officials are calling the city's "roadmap for disaster preparedness."

The plan includes provisions for increased funding from the city for its disaster preparedness program, as well as details of new hotspots to be established to provide essential services to citizens, such as shelter, water and electricity. But the city's top priority is its rapid scanning system for assessing the security of Istanbul's buildings.

For more than three years, the city has been conducting building inspections for buildings constructed before 2000, when the new earthquake ordinance went into effect. The service is now offered free of charge, and requests have increased by more than 100,000 since the February earthquake, according to the county.

Ozlem Tut, head of the municipality's earthquake risk management and urban development department, told CNN that of the 29,000 buildings inspected so far, 50% are at high risk of collapse. "We also identified 318 buildings...that could collapse without earthquake damage," she says.

Construction amnesties

While the city authorities say they are taking the lead to ensure the city is prepared for an earthquake, the mayor, a key member of Turkey's main opposition party, is also taking aim at President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, criticizing the government's historic implementation of amnesties to set up for zoning. . .

Since the mid-1980s, the Turkish government has granted amnesties to buildings built without planning permission and those that do not comply with official building codes, including earthquake codes.

Now many are worried“favela” communities. The term translates to "built overnight" and refers to homes built quickly and without the proper permits, often found in one of the city's many slums.

Imamoglu wants to end city amnesties.

Some residents of these impoverished neighborhoods told CNN that even if their homes are at risk, they don't have the financial means to move elsewhere.

“Our building is not strong. There are no pillars, just bricks. But what can we do? It's a slum, we built it ourselves," Sukriye Aldirmaz told CNN.

In the Schwachlu district of Istanbul, resident Sade Ozorman told CNN she has little hope that her building will survive an earthquake.

"Most of the buildings here are over 30 years old," says Ozorman. "I don't think they're robust buildings. Actually, I would like to move, but the rents are too high.

In many Gecekondu neighborhoods, one-story slums have been turned into apartment blocks for financial reasons. Despite safety concerns, many of these buildings have been given legal status through government building amnesties.

But such concerns don't just apply to gecekondu communities. Many deprived neighborhoods in the city were built before earthquake regulations were put in place and are considered unsafe.

Sukru Karali, a developer living in the Bagcilar district, told CNN that he doesn't trust the integrity of the buildings he's helped develop in the area, including his own home.

“These buildings were built in the early 1990s. How can you trust them?” says Karali. "It's very worrying, but there's nothing we can do. A lot depends on your financial situation.”

inaccessible living space

The real estate market in Istanbul is becoming increasingly inaccessible as Turkey grapples with a deepening financial crisis. The country has seen rising inflation as a result of the government's unorthodox monetary policy and a currency crisis that has seen the value of the lira fall nearly 30% against the dollar over the past year.

As part of its Disaster Mobilization Plan, Istanbul Municipality has started construction of 5,000 social housing units for low-income families and plans to build another 10,000 social housing units in the near future.

Erdogan, who faces elections in two months, has also vowed to build thousands of new homes and rebuild parts of south-east Turkey hit by February's earthquake within a year. In a recent speech, he admitted about 6.5 million buildings needed to be rebuilt across the country.

Imamoglu, the mayor of Istanbul, has been nominated by a coalition of opposition parties to run for vice president in hopes of toppling Erdogan and his Ak party in May's elections.

Now that February's earthquake has firmly cemented Turkey's disaster preparedness in the minds of voters, Imamoglu is calling for closer cooperation between central and local governments to prepare the country's commercial capital for what experts say is inevitable.

"The impending disaster will threaten Turkey's national security," Imamoglu said at a meeting announcing the disaster preparedness plan earlier this month. "It's not just a threat to Istanbul or the Marmara region. It is a threat to Turkey's future, its economy and its place in the world."

the abstract

Assad welcomes the expansion of the Russian military presence in Syria

Syrian President Bashar al-Assad said Thursday he would welcome an expansion of Russian military bases and troops in Syria, saying such a presence should be "not temporary". "We believe that expanding Russia's presence in Syria is a good thing," Assad said in an interview with Russia's state-run RIA news agency on Thursday. Assad added that Russian military bases in Syria must be equipped with the most modern weapons to effectively counter threats, "whether they be hypersonic missiles or other more advanced weapons."

Iran's national security chief is visiting the United Arab Emirates amid the thaw in relations with Arab neighbors

Iran's Supreme National Security Council Secretary Ali Shamkhani met with UAE National Security Advisor Sheikh Tahnoun bin Zayed Al Nahyan in Abu Dhabi on Thursday as Iran joined forceswith its neighbors in the Persian Gulfimprove.

Israeli President outlines proposed compromise on judicial review and warns country on brink of 'civil war'

Israeli President Isaac Herzog on Wednesday presented his proposed compromise on the reform of the Israeli judiciary and in an impassioned speech warned that the country was on the brink of a "civil war". Herzog's proposal limits the court's powers, e.g. B. increasing the requirements for parliamentary approval of quasi-constitutional "fundamental laws" that the Supreme Court could not overturn, and requiring the court to have a two-thirds majority to overturn other laws. . . instead of the previous simple majority. It also gives the ruling coalition more say in appointing new judges, but not full power. Members of the ruling coalition rejected Herzog's proposal almost immediately after his speech.

something to see

The United Arab Emirates have officially started their journey to COP28, holding their first event on Wednesday ahead of the world climate change conference they will host later this year. The event aimed to raise awareness of the need to accelerate global climate action, with young people at the heart of the debate.

“Climate change is so complex. We need to reinvent, rethink and redesign the way we live... and that requires new potential and new ideas," Shamma Al Mazrui, COP28 Youth Climate Champion, told CNN's Becky Anderson.

Sultan Al-Jaber, COP28 President-elect, has launched the International Youth Climate Delegates Program which will sponsor 100 international youth delegates to attend the climate summit and a seat at the negotiating table.

Some young climate activists criticized the event, criticizing the appointment of Al-Jaber, an oil executive, to lead the climate talks.

Al Mazrui says COP28 wants to include everyone, including activists. "We receive them. We'd love to hear from you," he said.

See the full reportHere.

Por Zeena Saifi

3 million dollars

UAE President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan on Thursday pledged $3 million to help rebuild the Palestinian town of Huwara in the occupied West Bank, which was badly damaged by dozens of Israeli settlers over the past month.He became angrywhat one of Israel's top military generals later called a "pogrom."

around the region

Mohamed Salah of Liverpool looks dejected during the UEFA Champions League round of 16 second leg match between Real Madrid and Liverpool FC at Santiago Bernabeu Stadium on March 15, 2023 in Madrid, Spain.

Egyptian police have arrested two men for breaking into the home of famous Egyptian footballer Mohamed Salah in Cairo and stealing his belongings, including a silver medal from the 2017 Africa Cup of Nations.This was announced by the Egyptian public prosecutorThursday.

The suspects apparently broke through a window on March 2 and stole sportswear, trophies, electronics and cash, among other things, prosecutors said.

The Egyptian Interior Ministry published a photo on Wednesdaytwo suspects, with his face blurred, in front of a table with stolen items, including sneakers, a television receiver, a piece of broken glass and a medal. He said the stolen items belonged to a soccer player, without giving a name.

All the stolen items were confiscated and returned to the owner, the ministry said.

Salah, 30, became Liverpool's top scorer in the Premier League last week and scored his 128th and 129th goals in the top flight against Manchester United on Sunday, making him the club's "most prolific player in the division".

picture of the Day

Palestinian runners take part in a marathon in Gaza City on Friday to denounce the killing of Palestinians by the Israeli army in the occupied West Bank and to support Palestinians in Israeli jails.

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